WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Chalk it up to “Scottmentum”?
That’s what one pollster calls South Carolina U.S. Senator Tim Scott’s political rise in Iowa, where he is moving up the polls and, it appears, eroding support for No. 2 GOP presidential candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
A poll conducted by J.L. Partners for Great Britain’s Daily Mail shows former President Donald Trump far ahead of his rivals, with the backing of 43 percent of Republican caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State. That’s up 2 percentage points since April. It’s also no surprise. Trump is crushing his opponents in just about every poll out there.
What is of note is DeSantis’ diminishing support in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. The poll shows the Florida governor at 17 percent, down from 26 percent in April.
Meanwhile, Scott has seen his political fortunes rise in Iowa, polling at 11 percent in the latest Daily Mail survey. He’s climbed 10 points since April when he was barely registering.
“Though voters continue to have a positive view of the man himself, support for DeSantis is falling fast and now only six points separate him and Tim Scott for second place,” James Johnson, co-founder of Republican polling firm J.L. Partners, which conducted the research for the Daily Mail, told the publication.
“Alongside Trump’s ascendancy, the story of this poll is ‘Scottmentum:’ Scott has jumped from one percent in April to 11 percent now,” Johnson added.
Scottmentum most certainly has something to do with the millions of dollars the Scott campaign and its allies have pumped into advertising in the early-voting states Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
When the black Republican senator launched his presidential campaign in early May, he dropped $6 million in ad buys in the Hawkeye and Granite states. The Scott-supporting Trust in the Mission super PAC then added another $7.25 million to the advertising blitz. The PAC recently announced it would pour $40 million for ads in the opening nominating states.
The campaign released a new ad on Thursday, running in Iowa and New Hampshire. The spot, titled “Your House,” features Scott talking about lax border security under President Joe Biden and the scourge of deadly fentanyl. The ad comes on the heels of Scott’s visit to the southern border, where he spoke with law enforcement and community leaders.
“Border security is national security,” he says in the ad.
A Fox Business poll in late July found Scott inching up on DeSantis, who carried 16 percent support from likely Hawkeye State Republican caucus-goers to Scott’s 11 percent.
Things appear to be tough all over for DeSantis, who has shaken up his campaign organization in recent weeks.
A new national poll from Cygnal released Thursday found Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy overtaking DeSantis for the No. 2 spot behind Trump. Ramaswamy drew 11.4 percent support to DeSantis’ 10.4 percent. While DeSantis has a wider edge over his closest competitors in other polls, his support in many has eroded.
Ramaswamy is polling at 5 percent in the new Iowa poll, good for fourth place and up from 1 percent in April. He’s followed by former Vice President Mike Pence (3 percent), tied with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who has dropped 2 percentage points since the April poll, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
J.L. Partners surveyed 600 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa from August 1 to August 7. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The Daily Mail story did not include a link to the actual poll and its methodology and demographics.
The story asserts that despite DeSantis’ decline in Republican caucus-goer support, he is best placed to give Trump a run for the GOP nomination — in a head-to-head matchup.
Bryan Griffin, DeSantis campaign press secretary told the publication: “This primary is a two-man race between Governor DeSantis and a man running in 2024 on the things he promised to do in 2016 and failed to do.”
“Governor DeSantis is the only candidate in the race who can beat Joe Biden and implement the agenda we need to reverse this country’s decline and revive its future,” Griffin said.
Meanwhile, three indictments have done nothing to diminish Trump’s support.
“In April he had a 15-point lead amongst likely caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State; that now stands at a 26-point advantage,” Johnson told the Daily Mail.
The GOP candidates are expected to turn out in force at the Iowa State Fair, beginning with appearances today through next week—most plan to attend “Fair-Side Chats,” interviews with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
– – –
M.D. Kittle is the National Political Editor for The Star News Network.
Photo “Tim Scott” by Tim Scott.
